Recently, Liaoning began to encourage the elderly to start their own businesses and reward the birth of a second child to combat the growing aging crisis. Will this be a rehearsal for the whole society？Aging is a soft knife that doesn't hurt when you cut it, but when you zoom in and aggregate the actions of individuals as a whole, you will understand that the whole of China is actually trying to cope with aging by saving houses。From the perspective of population crisis, the author makes a sharp interpretation of China's current economic and social dilemma, but there is no shortage of future expectations for the country。

我有一个梦想，我们能把这个地方搞好，无论是自然环境还是社会环境 ，而不用绞尽脑汁移民去其他国度。

毕竟，如果生我养我的这960万平方公里都没有容身之处，世上哪里还有其他地方会有容身之处。

1

根据统计局的数据，The number of births in China in 2017 was 17.23 million, down 630,000 from 2016 and lower than the lower limit of 2,023 births predicted by the Health and Family Planning Commission in 2017.2万少了300万。其中二孩的出生人口是883万，一孩只有724万，可以想象，若2015年没有全面开放二孩，出生人口已是雪崩式下降。

时光倒退30年，1987年，中国出生了2528.80,000 people, which is destined to be a birth peak, it is determined by China's previous birth peak in the 1960s, and determines the birth peak in 2016, more than 20 years later。After 1987, the number of births fell all the way to a low of less than 16 million in 2004-06, less than two-thirds of the peak。未来出生人口也会走出这样的趋势，即使不考虑已经低到地下室的生育意愿，按最乐观的估计，在未来Within seven years, the number of births will fall below 10 million and will be overtaken by the number of deaths, entering a long period of negative population growth。

出生人口骤降的后果没有那么快显现出来，相反，人口高峰的阵痛却很明显。由于中国传统的生肖观念，2012年龙年是一个出生大年，2011年-2013年，上海出生人口分别为18.00，22.61，19.62（万），北京出生人口分别为19.1、22.4、21.6（万），都在龙年有个凸起。And 2018 is the year that a large number of people born in 2012 are enrolled in school, so at the beginning of the year, I saw some people complain that they pay millions of annual taxes to the Beijing government, but their children can not go to school in Beijing, so two or three years ago, parents of many children in Shanghai went to the government to protest that there is no kindergarten to go to。

很多私立幼儿园前些年取得大发展，其中一些传出虐童的丑闻。生龙宝宝的代价是巨大的，有些操心多家长孩子两三岁时就开始四处寻觅合适的学区房，并不惜重金购置。不仅如此，龙年出生的孩子升学压力始终存在，并面临更激烈的中高考竞争。

2015 is the year of the Sheep, the traditional concept of the zodiac is not a good year, it has become a fertility trough, corresponding, 2014 and 2016 formed two small baby peaks。In addition, coincining with the comprehensive implementation of the two-child policy in 2015 and the centralized birth of two children in 2016, the two factors combined to increase the birth population in Beijing by more than 50%.由In 2015, less than 200,000 people were born in the year of the Sheep to 280,000 people were born in the year of the Monkey in 2016, so it is a big trouble for Beijing monkey babies to go to school, and many children born in Beijing are doomed to not be able to go to school in Beijing。相比之下，上海由于南方独生子女政策贯彻较严，之前实施的The "two-child" policy has released more two-child birth intentions, and the 2016 baby boom in Shanghai was not as exaggerated as Beijing。

无论如何，对于孩子在2017年以后出生的家长来说，无论是北京上海还是在其他任何城市，未来是要大大松一口气的。随着出生人口的走低，学位的概念将逐渐淡化，入学也会越来越容易。Of course, not everyone is happy about this, and it is accompanied by the cooling of the speculation of the school district house, and these industries of mother and child, early education, and K12 education will also queue up from prosperity to decline。

2

老龄化在中国已是老生常谈。在2016年出生高峰的4年前，2012年，中国已经迎来了劳动力人口拐点，并自此以每年The rate of decline is about 3-4 million, and by 2017, the cumulative reduction has exceeded the permanent population of an entire Shenzhen。Even more dramatic is the impending precipitous decline, with the labor force shrinking by more than 10 million people a year by 2023, the size of a megacity。

2012年对中国经济也不是个好年份。Steel and coal industry giants have been bankrupt, Wenzhou and Ordos housing prices collapsed, and more and more intense has the trend of spreading to the whole country, the future of soaring housing prices in Hangzhou, at that time, there was no shortage of prices nearly 50% of the real estate。The economic downturn was reflected in the financial markets, where share prices fell so low that the Securities and Futures Commission suspended the meeting as it approached, in order to maintain the stability of the indexIPO，作为补偿，开始鼓励金融创新。

今天我们知道，金融本质上就是股和债的零和博弈，根本不存在什么创新，金融创新跟金融诈骗基本同义。Securities brokerages under the supervision of the CSRC have not created anything, but non-licensed financial institutions such as Internet finance have flourished under the banner of financial innovation, contributing to the future financial failure。

当然，2012年的不景气与劳动力人口下降并有什么直接联系，更多是2008年刺激政策的后遗症。认真追根溯源的话，今天的很多问题都可以追到2008年去，十年起起伏伏兜兜转转，问题没有解决几个，人老了，劳动力也没了。

对个体来说，老龄化的影响往往以事件的形式突然爆发。For example, if a parent's body has a problem on a certain day and a major malignant disease is detected, then from examination, treatment to post-care, it will be a laborious and costly thing。In the current domestic environment, contact with hospitalization, specialist consultation, surgery these things, more or less you know, test the family's contacts, patience and wallet。而这一代人多为独生子女，压力往往全在一个人或者一对夫妇身上。相信很多人身边会有朋友因为父母身体原因，使得整个人生计划发生重大改变的例子。

年初的时候，朋友圈刷屏的《mg游戏试玩》记录了岳父从流感到肺炎、从门诊到ICU，29天耗尽了一家人的精力和多年的积蓄，最终阴阳两隔的经历。The article's popularity is due to the fact that many people feel the same, this kind of thing is likely to happen to them, and for most ordinary families, the shock of similar things will undoubtedly be much greater than that of the Beijing middle-class families in the article。

But if there is no event, the aging process is slow, the individual's perception of aging is very limited, and the soft knife does not feel pain, so that many people think that aging is not a big deal。

3

对于社会整体而言，老龄化的经济对策看上去显而易见。要在劳动力人口减少的情况下保持产出、乃至实现增长，就必须把劳动效率提上来。而提高劳动效率有3点途径：技术进步、减少损耗、优化结构。Although it can be written seriously, it is all nonsense, because whether there is an aging problem or not, from the perspective of society as a whole, the higher the labor efficiency, the better, and all available methods have been used long ago。

务实的日本人知道这个道理，所以没有老龄化对策部，只有少子化对策部，主要任务是想办法让人多生孩子。另一个解决办法是让人晚退休，延迟劳动力人口退出劳动的时间。However, the delayed retirement policy caused a lot of criticism when it was leaked in China, because people saw that the government did not care about whether people retired or not, but just wanted to pay later and less pension。

从个体层面，对普通人来说，如果不多生几个孩子，就只能储蓄了。而老龄化越严重，需要储蓄越多。大多数人已经意识到储蓄货币事倍功半，事实也是如此。从社会整体看，货币是无用的东西，不能吃不能用不能生产，如果全中国所有人的储蓄多添一个0，无非就是让物价再多添一个0。When labor is scarce, prices will rise even if there is no central bank to print money, and there is nothing to stop the central bank from printing money, or printing money like crazy。

为了抵御货币的贬值，人们把目光投向房地产，寄望于通过持有房产削减通货膨胀带来的影响。总体上看，这是一种天真的想法。Despite the rapid printing of money and the speed of building houses, China's total investment in real estate and the area opened and completed in real estate have maintained double-digit growth in most years。

所以一边是人口减少，一边是房子越来越多，很难想象未来能通过富裕的房产换取稀缺的劳动力。按照In 2012, the real estate market differentiation theory, the third and fourth tier cities have long been surplus of houses, but the shed reform, PSL one, CDB tens of trillions of money to the real estate market, house prices in the third and fourth tier cities have long been surplus and rose several times after 6 years。

开发商和原房主是以The transaction itself is not important to the society as a whole. It is just a redistribution of wealth. It is just that the real estate certificate changes its name and the house money changes its owner。

房价越高，购房人付出的代价越大，卖房人得到的利益越高。It is often mentioned that the value of real estate is increased, in fact, the value is not quantifiable, a set of property in Shanghai Jing 'an Temple, used to live is the residential value, used for commercial purposes is the production value, the residential value is comfortable to live in a prosperous business and convenient transportation, these have nothing to do with the price, it is impossible because of the unit price5000元涨到了50万，住起来就能成仙。楼盘周围通了地铁、开设了商圈，那么即使价格腰斩，居住价值也是提升的。

Therefore, when people refer to the increase in the value of real estate, they are actually only talking about the increase in price, but the land is still the same land, the house is still the same room, and the overall wealth of society will not increase because of the increase in price。There is an ironic joke that by selling half of Shanghai and buying the whole of Taiwan, China's semiconductor industry can advance by leaps and bounds, and if Shanghai house prices then double, selling a quarter will be enough。

虽然单笔房地产交易的价格高低无关社会整体财富，但是对于购房者来说，用5万/平还是用10万/平买了房子，却可能关乎未来很长一段时间的消费水平、关乎婚育计划。Buying a house has become so important that, at a time when labor is in short supply, people are spending more and more energy discussing and researching houses。

The real estate market has long conveyed a rising signal, which is related to the system, related to the stage of economic development, related to the age structure of the population, related to the land finance caused by the tax distribution system, related to the excessive gap between the rich and the poor, related to the unbalanced distribution of real estate resources, and the systematization of risks in the financial system and the kidnapping of the central bank。这一长期上涨，让所谓炒房团体赚的盆满钵满。

然而，炒房的逻辑从一开始就是不成立的。If you think that the class has solidified and the rich already have more and better houses, then the speculation of the house is expected to sell to the poorer class, and the expectation is that the poorer class will buy the house at a higher price, only the poorer class will get higher income growth, and this can only occur generally through higher inflation。

在节节攀升的房价和金融运作机制面前，个体们陷入了囚徒困境，They worry that by not participating in the army of buyers, hoarders and speculators, a financial system held hostage by real estate will eventually force the central bank to release water, and inflation will remain high, shrinking their money and savings。应当说，这种担心并不是多余的。As a result, more and more people participate in the housing price, the higher and higher the risk of the financial system, which forces the central bank to release more water to boost the housing price, forming a vicious circle。

The price of the commodity determines the final distribution, and the result of the distribution guides people's economic behavior. The high real estate price leads more labor to the real estate and related financial industries, and the vast number of people's work actually revolves around the real estate。

If you look at it a little bit more, and you look at the actions of individuals as a whole, you see that China as a whole is actually trying to cope with aging by saving houses, and when there are enough houses, this saving is necessarily meaningless, and it is not helpful to deal with labor shortages at the social level as a whole。

在经济比较和回顾大多数文章中，对于上世纪The depression in Japan in the 1990s often started from the Plaza Agreement in 1985, culminating in the Bank of Japan's continuous interest rate hikes to puncture the real estate and stock market bubbles. It seemed that the depression in Japan was caused by the United States, and it seemed that the Bank of Japan was acting willfully. The voiceover was that if the central bank did not operate so, Japan could avoid depression。这构成央行操作的反面教材，全世界央行今天都很少会去主动挑破经济泡沫了。

然而鲜有文章提及，日本央行为什么要这么做，为什么敢承担这么大罪责。In fact, before the Bank of Japan started, there was a big discussion about where Japan was going in the future, and the Japanese people at that time saw their trading houses in real estate, car companies in real estate, chemical plants in real estate, and the students of Tokyo University in real estate as soon as they graduated, and the whole people speculated in real estate。很著名的说法是当时日本的房地产可以买下整个美国。The Japanese say that this is not possible, Japan is a country with a lack of resources, only the house everyone has to drink the northwest wind, to build a country of manufacturing, science and technology。所以日本人是在明白了光储蓄房子不行，会毁了日本社会的未来之后，刺破了房地产泡沫。

与房地产交易价格高低仅仅是一种财富再分配一样，股票的价格高低跟社会财富也没有任何关系。二级市场上富士康的股价无论是10 pieces or 100 pieces, Foxconn will always be the same Foxconn, and assemble as many iphones as it needs。而靠股票养老比房地产养老更不靠谱。

事实上，无论是货币、房地产、保险还是其他任何金融产品，从社会整体层面讲都是零和游戏，如果没有带来资源结构的优化，便纯粹只是消耗结构，但是当前的政治经济环境下，这些消耗结构却蓬勃发展越来越大，让应对老龄化的形势愈发严峻。

4

Many people have already felt that the society as a whole has not only failed to develop in the direction of improving labor efficiency, on the contrary, internal friction has become more and more serious, the phenomenon of reverse elimination in various fields and industries is serious, and people who have lost their virtue and talent and become rich by shameless and cheating are not cases。而更让人忧虑的是，我们似乎已经失去了纠错的能力，只能放任在错误的道路上渐行渐远。

中国今天的人口危机不是没有预兆、也不是不曾有缓和余地。早在2000年，国家统计局的人口抽样调查结果就显示，当年的总和生育率仅为1.22，已经远低于世代更替所需要的2.1。面对这一数据，当年的计生委认为存在大量瞒报，将总和生育率上调到1.8，以至于之后十余年的人口测算、相关政策规划，包括联合国的报告都是按照总和生育率1.8走。

2010年第六次人口普查结果显示，当年的生育率只有1.18，跟2000年的统计数据接近，跟计生委的数字又是天差地远。又到了2013年，单独二孩实施时，人口问题已是危机四伏，部分专家学者开始呼吁放开生育。

然而，中国最Zhai Zhenwu, a "top" demographic expert, president of the China Population Society, director of the Population and Development Research Center at Renmin University of China, and winner of the China Population Prize, wrote publicly that "if the two-child policy is fully implemented, China's annual peak birth rate will reach 49.95 million, and the total fertility rate will reach 4 million..5”。In July 2014, health and Family Planning Commission officials also adopted Zhai's data at a press conference, believing that if the two-child policy is fully implemented, more than 90 million additional children will be born。

事实啪啪打脸，出生人口在2016年的顶峰都没有摸到1800万，2017年就已经开始下降。But in such circumstances, in March 2017, the Health and Family Planning Commission still publicly stated at a press conference that China's fertility situation was "fully in line with the forecast", and China has no shortage of population, and there is no shortage in the next 100 years。

有些错误那么明显，却得不到纠正，无人受到追责，不仅如此，一些人还因此富贵荣华。难道我们要真的活在“没有对错，只有利益的大人世界”里？要知道这种世界里，绝大多数人是注定不能好过的。

5

据清华的《中国养老金发展报告In 2015, the cumulative amount of urban workers' basic pension insurance individual accounts was 4714.4 billion yuan, while the cumulative balance of urban workers' pension insurance funds in that year was only 3,534.5 billion yuan, which has been about 1.2万亿的差额。养老金领取金额是基数加上个人账户金额，所以养老金实际缺口要大于这个数字。15年后的数没人提，大概已经是天文数字。

中央向地方的基本养老金转移支付，2017年的执行数是5858.80亿，2018年预算数已经到了6696.56亿，这个意思是说，本来要靠地方政府发的养老金，有些地方已经发不出了，要靠中央拨6700亿给这些地方的退休工人发退休金。这个数字也将逐年扩大。

At the end of last year, the medical insurance fund was in emergency, medical insurance control costs, many drugs could not be prescribed, and major hospitals were required to pick cheap consumables, and ordinary silk could be used for surgery without using high-price sutures such as protein lines, and some operations were postponed。虽然直接责任在社保基金，也从侧面反映了整体的财政窘境。

无论地方还是中央，财政收入都不能算太好。Given the rapid increase in government spending, it is impossible for tax cuts to be substantial, and the large reduction in personal income tax that we all hope for is not in line with fiscal reality。地方上的土地财政也不是长久之计，极端一些的地方甚至城市建设已基本完成、人口稳定甚至负增长，根本不需要增加建设用地了。如果地方政府不恶意举债的话，就必须另辟收入来源，中央给的药方是房地产税。

在后期关于房地产税的官方说法中，都强调房地产税不是为了调控房地产，而主要是为了财政收入。In fact, the whole of China is resisting the real estate tax, even if it is local fiscal revenue, local governments are reluctant to levy it, because the real estate tax is the channel, and the local government now needs the most is the bucket of water that land transfer money。即便如此，如果不印钱印到恶性通货膨胀，长期看房地产税总是要征收的。

身边有些朋友笃信房地产税即使开征也征不到自己头上，未免过于乐观。The real estate tax is used to solve the problem of fiscal revenue, if the assets and income of the top few percent or even a few thousand people do not contribute, then only the richest group of massive bleeding, can fill the fiscal hole。

房地产税一时半会还征不起来，债务危机却已经四起。根据数据，From January to May 2018, the national real estate sales and real estate prices were hot to break records, but debt defaults are one after another, and housing prices are rising and so, if housing prices begin to fall, the situation is unimaginable。所有人再次把目光投到央行身上，希望央行再次充当救世主。The central bank's embarrassment is that, while it can ignore inflation, rising house prices and rising leverage, its core constrained foreign exchange reserves are not in a healthy state。

So far in 2016, the central bank has not been able to find the opportunity to slim down to offset the impact of the decline in foreign exchange reserves, on the contrary, the market has become more and more dependent on the central bank's water release, and the balance sheet has become more and more bloated。到了今年，一波债券违约潮再次宣告流动性危机，而央行要取得货币政策操作空间，就不可能强行维系汇率，人民币经历一波快速贬值，市场将之解读为“弃汇率保房价”，其实房价央行未必那么关心，重点在防范债券违约弥漫为系统性金融风险。

然而即使央行完全放弃汇率，金融体系的系统性风险也只能被延后而不能被消除。对央行来说，钱总是可以想办法印，所以钱能解决的问题都不是问题，所以现在所面临的问题都是钱不能解决的。经济的本质是人们都在做什么事情，如果大家都不在干正经事，也就得不到健康可持续的经济情况。At present, people invest in real estate or other financial assets as soon as they get their money, and then wait for households to buy them at a higher price. However, there are only so many people, in fact, there is no house, they just buy each other, blow up asset prices to insufficient liquidity, and then call on the central bank to release water。

即使不考虑汇率约束，整个金融体系的周期无非是，央行放水-->资产价格上涨-->信贷扩张-->扩张到极限或者遇到监管去杠杆-->流动性告急-->敦促央行放水，这时央行真放水的话，也只不过是这个循环再走一遍，而在过去十年里，这循环已经走了很多遍了。每次循环过后，水量要求会越来越大 ，央行资产与负债的背离也就越来越远。而类似央行这种把问题向后拖的行为，有个统一的说法叫“以时间换空间”，只不过，我们还有时间吗？

这In 10 years, the labor force has fallen six years from its peak, the birth population has also peaked and fallen, and the total population will also be negative, and our economy can withstand several such cycles？However, to break the cycle, historically, it was achieved through asset price reset, including real estate, stock price reset, including debt write-down, this process has a common name, called financial crisis。

6

形势不好的时候，人们就会喜欢赌博。

今年世界杯参与赌球的人就很多，小组赛爆冷的时候大家纷纷调侃相约去天台。The road of hard work and wealth can not go, some people calculate, in this life to be able to buy a favorite house, have to go to work since the Tang Dynasty, and they are willing to throw away the opportunity to make a fortune。

Not only that, if you don't find some opportunity to make a fortune, good and honest people can easily feel anxious and guilty, because there are many public accounts that stimulate everyone all day long, such as "Are you still living on a dead salary?？》，《MG游戏官方网站》，《MG游戏官方网站》，文末都是p2p和各类投资的广告。偶尔标题像是鸡血文的《mg游戏试玩》点进去一看是教你怎么做他家微商。

早些年我经常劝身边人不要去A股赌，后来发现人们如果不去A股赌，就会去其他地方赌，反正就是要赌。And are not called gambling, called investment, but also to learn a lot of technical analysis, by reading soft articles to learn new economy and new technology, feel that they are very hard, will soon stand in the next era of the tuyere。甚至，有些连赌都称不上，有机会赢才能叫赌，没有机会赢叫上当受骗。

What's a scam basically like now, is you know it's a scam, but the bureau makes you believe that more people will fall for it in the future, thereby benefiting you, but for the bureau, it's really just counting on your money in the first place。有时候我说这是个局的，就会有人跳出来骂：活该你一辈子发不了财。

Later, I thought about it, for the person who has entered the game, on the one hand, he still expects the new person behind him to enter the game to break the trap for him, on the other hand, the truth and reality may not matter at all, which is the last thought in a desperate situation。其实赚大钱的人我还算认识几个，运气因素确实影响不小，然而俗话说“一命二运三风水”，光有运气纯靠赌博发家的我只是听说，还没有见过。

Those who bet A little bigger on A share are basically those who made some money at the beginning of the bull market, and if they just started to speculate in the stock market and ran into a bear market loss, some people will not play。Earn money and taste the sweetness, put more wealth into it, the vast majority of people will soon be tied up, a set of several years, during which they will swear 1001 times, after the release of the set, they will no longer stock。解套的事倒是常有，戒掉炒股的人也没见过几个。

To say something politically incorrect, it is not known how much of the Chinese addiction to gambling and the Russian addiction to alcohol is due to genetic factors, but the environmental influence is also clear。As a country that is not far from the agricultural society, I do not know how much we know about the living conditions of agricultural producers, which is to rely on the day to eat a living, from deciding what to plant this year is a gamble, gambling that the weather is good, gambling that the harvest is good, but also gambling that the market is good next year, so the rural gambling wind is more bright。

7

2018年，1987年出生的人们才31岁，国家养老金已经有了数万亿的缺口，甚至可能快要收不抵支，医保基金到了年底就开不起药；2018年，1987年出生的人们已31岁，我们还没有救济制度，没有纠错机制，债务违约潮下甚至连个人破产制度都没有。

所谓"Old before rich", the rich here does not mean that there is money or no money, how expensive the house, but the real social wealth - clean air, fairness and justice, beautiful environment, live and work in peace, and institutional protection, which we are very lack。

At this turning point, and at the time when the people born at the peak of the population still have the last breath of vitality, let's create more social wealth, okay？

抱歉写得实在太长了，大家应该看得很累了，但是容我最后再啰嗦几句：

我有一个梦想，有一天我们能让善有善报、恶有恶报、优胜劣汰。

我有一个梦想，人们能做自己喜欢的工作，而不是每天上班的心情比上坟还要沉重。People can make a decent living and live in a decent house with their own salary and small business, rather than being forced to chase after various opportunities to make a fortune。

我有一个梦想，人们对未来充满憧憬而不是充满忧虑。

我有一个梦想，人与人能真正的互相着想，而不是能骗则骗。

我有一个梦想，我们能把这个地方搞好，无论是自然环境还是社会环境 ，而不用绞尽脑汁移民去其他国度。毕竟，如果生我养我的这960万平方公里都没有容身之处，世上哪里还有其他地方会有容身之处。（转）